Investing is more about where a stock is going than where it's come from. Moreover, if you could see a snapshot of what it would look like a year ahead and take a stab at guessing what kind of valuation it might trade on, you could put together an estimate of the type of return you could get from investing in a stock like (NYSE: UPS). In that line of thought, here's a look at what UPS could look like in a year.

It's been an unusual few years for the company. As articulated previously, in June 2021, management laid out its 2023 targets for revenue, operating profit margin, and operating profit and promptly hit them a year early in 2022. So far, so good, and going into 2023, investors had reason to believe the company would significantly exceed its 2023 targets in 2023.

Unfortunately, that didn't happen. What did happen is a combination of three factors that caused the company to miss the guidance it laid out at the start of the year significantly. For reference, management started the year forecasting full-year revenue of $97 billion to $99.4 billion and adjusted operating profit margin of 12.8% to 13.6%. Fast-forward to the third quarter earnings report in late October, and management now expects revenue of $91.3 billion to $92.3 billion and adjusted operating margin of 10.8% to 11.3%.

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Source Fool.com