Recession fears pushed the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) into a brutal bear market last year. In fact, the broad-based index delivered its worst return since the global financial crisis in 2008. But the S&P 500 has rebounded sharply through the first half of this year, buoyed by cooling inflation and stronger-than-expected earnings forecasts. The index is up 14% year to date, and that performance hints at further gains in the coming months.

Since 1950, on occasions when the S&P 500 returned between 10% and 15% in the first half of the year, the index always produced a positive return in the second half, and the median return was 10.9%. In other words, history says the stock market could maintain its momentum through the end of the year. But even if the momentum fizzles and gains fail to materialize, the S&P 500 has still returned about 10% annually over the long term, and Warren Buffett sees that as a compelling investment thesis.

Indeed, Buffett has frequently recommended an S&P 500 index fund as the best way for most investors to gain exposure to the stock market, and readers would do well to consider that advice.

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Source Fool.com