Medical Properties Trust (NYSE: MPW) has seen its shares fall by 48% this year -- and by 79% from their early 2022 peak. Yet, analysts on Wall Street have extremely high expectations for the healthcare-focused real estate investment trust (REIT). On average, those that cover the company see its stock rising by 82% within the next 12 months. I don't think that estimate will prove to be correct. Here's why. 

The crux of the problem with Medical Properties Trust is that it's stuck between a rock and a hard place, with massive debts coming due and not enough ability to pay them down. As a REIT, it makes money (in theory) by buying hospital and clinical properties using debt, then renting that space out for a higher annual return than its debt servicing costs.

When things are working as planned, its rental income is larger than its loan payments, and it can pass some of the extra cash on to investors via the dividend while retaining the rest to save up to purchase additional properties, or by paying down its non-current debt ahead of time. 

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Source Fool.com