It has been a difficult year for artificial intelligence-powered lending platform Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ: UPST). The softening macroeconomic situation in the U.S. has resulted in declining revenue and net losses, a huge reversal from the company's monster success in 2021. As a result, shares are down a whopping 90% in 2022. 

Despite Upstart's troubles, is it possible this fintech stock rises 100% over the next 12 months to reach $30? Let's take a closer look at how likely (or unlikely) this price target is. 

Even though Upstart touts itself as simply a platform that facilitates loan originations for its partner base of 83 combined banks and credit unions and 702 auto dealership locations, collecting a fee in doing so, it's strikingly clear the company is sensitive to the whims of the economy. In 2021, shares skyrocketed more than 850% between the start of the year to mid-October thanks to loans originated, sales, and profit that jumped 338%, 264%, and 2,150%, respectively, compared with the prior year. These are ridiculous gains. 

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Source Fool.com