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Oracle Corp. buy ValueFreak

Start price
€34.93
01.12.16 / 100%
Target price
€145.00
08.09.26
Performance (%)
292.29%
Price
€128.78
22.07.24
Summary
This prediction is currently active. The BUY prediction by ValueFreak for Oracle Corp. has seen massive gains of 292.29%. Dividends of €8.23 are taken into consideration when calculating the performance. This prediction currently runs until 08.09.26. The prediction end date can be changed by ValueFreak at any time. ValueFreak has 100% into this prediction
Performance without dividends (%)
Name 1w 1m 1y 3y
Oracle Corp. -1.904% -1.904% 21.743% 67.095%
iShares Core DAX® -0.543% 1.491% 13.638% 16.760%
iShares Nasdaq 100 -2.696% -1.235% 31.879% 45.155%
iShares Nikkei 225® -2.863% 2.491% 12.078% 7.840%
iShares S&P 500 -1.105% 0.013% 26.888% 43.056%

According to ValueFreak what are the pros and cons of Oracle Corp. for the foreseeable future?

Pros
Revenue growth >5% per year expected
EBIT growth >5% per year expected
Undervalued
High dividend yield expected
Top Rating
Very positive Cash Flow expected
Standard Investments for future growth
Valuable balance sheet
Small challenges to pay loans and raise capital
Very capable Management
Very good company culture
Innovative
Strong uniques
Very differentiated customer and product portfolio
Growths faster than the competition
Sustainability is important
Stable Large shareholder and/or long term investor
Small Risks for its business
Market Leader or Top 3
Very small cyclical dependencies
Well known brand
Very Future proof/growth oriented business model
Could be worthwhile Investment >10% per year
Higher EBIT margin than peer group
ROE higher than 15% per year
Cons

Comments by ValueFreak for this prediction

In the thread Oracle Corp. diskutieren

Oracle mit starken Cloud Umsätzen und Dividendenerhöhung
https://investor.oracle.com/home/default.aspx
  • Q3 GAAP Earnings per Share $0.68, Non-GAAP Earnings per Share $1.22
  • Q3 Total Revenue $12.4 billion, up 18% in USD, up 21% in constant currency
  • Q3 Cloud Revenue (IaaS plus SaaS) $4.1 billion, up 45% in USD, up 48% in constant currency
  • Q3 Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) Revenue $1.2 billion, up 55% in USD, up 57% in constant currency
  • Q3 Cloud Application (SaaS) Revenue $2.9 billion, up 42% in USD, up 44% in constant currency
  • Q3 Fusion Cloud ERP (SaaS) Revenue $0.7 billion, up 25% in USD, up 28% in constant currency
  • Q3 NetSuite Cloud ERP (SaaS) Revenue $0.7 billion, up 23% in USD, up 26% in constant currency
  • Oracle Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.40 per share, up 25% from $0.32
Nettogewinn und Free Cashflow liegen deutlich höher als im 3. Quartal des Vorjahres trotz hoher Investitionen

Oracle.PNG 29.33 KB

Prediction Buy
Perf. (%) 292.29%
Target price 145.000
Change
Ends at 08.09.26

Kursziel geändert auf 145,0

  • Q1 GAAP Earnings per Share $0.86, Non-GAAP Earnings per Share $1.19
  • Q1 Total Revenue $12.5 billion, up 9% in USD, up 8% in constant currency
  • Q1 Cloud Revenue (IaaS plus SaaS) $4.6 billion, up 30% in USD, up 29% in constant currency
  • Q1 Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) Revenue $1.5 billion, up 66% in USD, up 64% in constant currency
  • Q1 Cloud Application (SaaS) Revenue $3.1 billion, up 17% in USD, up 17% in constant currency
  • Q1 Fusion Cloud ERP (SaaS) Revenue $0.8 billion, up 21% in USD, up 20% in constant currency
  • Q1 NetSuite Cloud ERP (SaaS) Revenue $0.7 billion, up 21% in USD, up 21% in constant currency
"Is Generative AI the most important new computer technology ever? Maybe!," said Oracle Chairman and CTO, Larry Ellison. "Self-driving cars, molecular drug design, voice user interfaces—billions of dollars are being invested in AI. As of today, AI development companies have signed contracts to purchase more than $4 billion of capacity in Oracle's Gen2 Cloud. That's twice as much as we had booked at the end of Q4. The largest AI technology companies and the leading AI startups continue to expand their business with Oracle for one simple reason—Oracle's RDMA interconnected NVIDIA Superclusters train AI models at twice the speed and less than half the cost of other clouds."
Nachbörslich gibt der Kurs der Aktie zunächst nach - ein guter Quartalsbericht war bereits im Vorfeld erwartet worden.

In the current quarter. we expect our Cerner health business to be awarded two large new contracts with a total value of over $1 billion. And I'm now -- now able to announce that all nine utility companies owned by Berkshire Hathaway are in the process of replacing all their existing ERP systems and standardizing on Oracle's Fusion Cloud Applications. Let me conclude with a few words about our database business and our upcoming announcement with Microsoft later this week. We will be substantially expanding our existing multi-cloud partnership with Microsoft by making it easier for Microsoft Azure customers to buy and use the latest Oracle Cloud database technology in combination with Microsoft Azure Cloud Services.

  • Q3 GAAP Earnings per Share $0.85, Non-GAAP Earnings per Share up 16% to $1.41
  • Q3 Total Revenue $13.3 billion, up 7% in both USD and constant currency
  • Q3 Total Remaining Performance Obligations up 29% to $80 billion
  • Q3 Cloud Revenue (IaaS plus SaaS) $5.1 billion, up 25% in USD, up 24% in constant currency
  • Q3 Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) Revenue $1.8 billion, up 49% in both USD and constant currency
  • Q3 Cloud Application (SaaS) Revenue $3.3 billion, up 14% in both USD and constant currency
  • Q3 Fusion Cloud ERP (SaaS) Revenue $0.8 billion, up 18% in both USD and constant currency
  • Q3 NetSuite Cloud ERP (SaaS) Revenue $0.8 billion, up 21% in USD, up 20% in constant currency
Nachbörslich sind die Anteile stark gefragt und der Kurs legt zweistellig zu. Damit werden neue Allzeit Hochs erreicht.
"Large new cloud infrastructure contracts signed in Q3 drove Oracle's total Remaining Performance Obligations up 29% to over $80 billion—an all-time record," said Oracle CEO, Safra Catz. "We expect to continue receiving large contracts reserving cloud infrastructure capacity because the demand for our Gen2 AI infrastructure substantially exceeds supply—despite the fact we are opening new and expanding existing cloud datacenters very, very rapidly. We expect that 43% of our current $80 billion of Remaining Performance Obligations will be recognized as revenue over the next four quarters, and that our Gen2 Cloud Infrastructure business will remain in a hypergrowth phase—up 53% in Q3—for the foreseeable future."
"In Q3, Oracle finished moving the majority of Cerner customers to Oracle's Gen2 Cloud Infrastructure," said Oracle Chairman and CTO, Larry Ellison. "In Q4, Oracle will start delivering its completely new Ambulatory Clinic Cloud Application Suite to these same customers. This new AI-driven system features an integrated voice interface called the Clinical Digital Assistant that automatically generates doctors' notes and updates Electronic Health Records—saving precious time and improving health data accuracy. The delivery of this revolutionary new healthcare technology will enable the rapid modernization of our customers' health systems over the coming year, and transform Cerner and Oracle Health into a high-growth business for years to come."

Broadcom is suspending all VMware sales and upgrades—along with nine other critical features —for a week so it can move VMware’s SAP-based ERP (enterprise resource planning) system to an Oracle ERP system.
Mit der Harmonisierung der Systeme wird Broadcom Synergie Effekte realisieren.

Die Oracle Aktie profitiert heute von Nachrichten über Verhandlungen mit xAI zur Bereitstellung von Clouddiensten
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/oracle-stock-orcl-elon-musk-cloud-xai-ai/
Musk's xAI startup would become one of Oracle's largest customers, according to the report. The Information cited a person involved in the talks. The year-old xAI hopes to challenge OpenAI as a developer of large language models that power generative AI tools.
On the stock market today, Oracle stock is up more than 3% at 119.89. Shares jumped as high as 122 following the news before easing back slightly. 

Business Insider veröffentlichte einen negativen Artikel über das Health Care Geschäft von Oracle
https://www.businessinsider.com/oracle-cerner-health-larry-ellison-28-billion-deadly-gamble-veterans-2024-5
Mittlerweile scheint der Artikel hinter einer Bezahlschranke gesichert zu sein. In dem Artikel wird die Funktionalität der Cerner Software in ziemlich schlechtem Licht dargestellt und auch darauf verwiesen, dass Oracle Kunden an den Konkurrenten Epic verliert.
Oracle hat inzwischen auf der eigenen Webseite eine Gegendarstellung eingestellt
https://www.oracle.com/news/announcement/blog/thankfully-business-insider-is-not-responsible-for-healthcare-modernization-2024-05-28/ 
The palaeoloxodon in the room is that the Department of Defense (DoD) has now finished successfully implementing the Cerner electronic heath record system to rave reviews. We were unaware the internet had page limits, but BI could only see fit to include 20 words of Oracle’s 124-word statement in a nearly 4,500-word story. We include the entirety of the statement below (for ease of the reader we bold everything BI ignored):
“Our veterans and the people who care for them deserve a world-class EHR system, and Oracle is delivering it.
Since Oracle took over the VA’s EHR modernization project two years ago, we have made thousands of improvements to enhance the performance, reliability, and usability of the system. The technology being deployed at the VA is the same technology helping doctors and nurses provide reliable, quality care at all 3,890 DoD locations—the largest EHR implementation in the world. The recent highly successful go-live at the joint DoD and VA operated Lovell Federal Health Care Center in Chicago is a powerful demonstration of our ability and commitment to provide veterans with unsurpassed care, and we look forward to extending this success across every VA facility.
You see from our statement the fact that Oracle/Cerner was successfully deployed at nearly 4,000 DoD facilities. That part of our statement inconveniently contradicts BI’s core thesis. So they ignored it.
Der Konkurrenzkampf auf dem Gebiet der Health Care Software scheint besonders hart zu sein und ich denke, dass Oracle keine Mühen scheuen wird, die eigene Position zu verteidigen und auszubauen.

Heute gab es an der US Börse einen Kursrückgang für die Oracle Aktie und ich bin mir nicht sicher, ob es an dieser Geschichte liegt oder vielleicht am Verblassen von Hoffnungen, intensiv mit xAI ins Geschäft zu kommen. Auch die Befürchtung höherer US Zinsen könnte den Dämpfer ausgelöst haben. Wahrscheinlich haben auch die schlechten Nachrichten von Salesforce dazu beigetragen.

"In Q3 and Q4, Oracle signed the largest sales contracts in our history—driven by enormous demand for training AI large language models in the Oracle Cloud," said Oracle CEO, Safra Catz. "These record level sales drove RPO up 44% to $98 billion. Throughout fiscal year 2025, I expect continued strong AI demand to push Oracle sales and RPO even higher—and result in double-digit revenue growth this fiscal year. I also expect that each successive quarter should grow faster than the previous quarter—as OCI capacity begins to catch up with demand. In Q4 alone, Oracle signed over 30 AI sales contracts totaling more than $12.5 billion—including one with Open AI to train ChatGPT in the Oracle Cloud."
Bottomline stieg das Nettoeinkommen in FY 2024 um 23% auf 10,5 Mrd USD und erreichte 20% vom Umsatz. Die Nachrichten entfalten positive Wirkung im Markt und treiben den nachbörslichen Aktienkurs nach oben. Für die nächsten Monate sind die Aussichten glänzend.
Was ich vermisse in dem Bericht ist allerdings der weitere Fortgang der Cerner Aquisition. Vielleicht gibt es da später Informationen im Transcript zu der Pressekonferenz.

These astonishing RPO numbers, 44% and $98 billion, were driven by massive increases in sales of Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, OCI. So, who are the companies choosing to use Oracle Cloud Services and Oracle data centers? Well, here are a few names: Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, xAI, OpenAI, Cohere, and dozens more. In other words, the world's largest cloud companies and the world's most successful and accomplished AI companies choose to use Oracle Cloud Services and data centers. So, excuse me again -- so why are they working with Oracle? Because Oracle's Gen 2 Cloud Infrastructure is different.
OCI's RDMA network moves data much faster. And when you charge by the minute, faster also means less expensive. OCI trains large language models several times faster and at a fraction of the cost of other clouds. OCI's critical cloud software, the operating system, and the database are fully autonomous.

Nach fast 20 Jahren wurden heute im Realdepot die 1000% überschritten. Am 27.12.2005 hatte ich ein kleines Paket Oracle Aktien erworben (für 10,39 EUR das Stück) und am 16.08.2007 ergänzt (für 14,09 EUR das Stück). Alle Stücke liegen noch immer im privaten Depot und gewinnen steuerfrei an Wert. Seit Mai 2009 hatte das Unternehmen damit begonnen, in jedem Quartal Dividende zu zahlen. Trotz Kursgewinnen konnte ich ruhig schlafen, denn der Aktienkurs kam immer mit relativ geringen temporären Verlusten durch die diversen Marktkrisen. Das gilt aber nur für die Zeit nach der Dotcom Blase, die Mitte 2002 und damit vor meinen Käufen abgeschlossen war.
Das Beispiel zeigt, dass es sich lohnt ein gutes Unternehmen am Markt auszusuchen und über die Jahre Geduld aufzubringen. Es gibt sicher viele Beispiele mit wesentlich höherer und/oder schnellerer Rendite, aber das Investieren ist ein mit Risken gepflasterter Marathonlauf. 1000% in 20 Jahren entsprechen ungefähr 12% Verzinsung pro Jahr.     

Preis der Oracle Aktie seit Ende 2005 im Vergleich zu 15% (blau) und NASDAQ (grün)

.

xAI hat offenbar in der Verhandlung mit Oracle unrealistisches Timing verlangt und die Verhandlungen wurden abgebrochen.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oracle-musks-xais-10-billion-171235207.html
A multi-year agreement to rent Nvidia processors from Oracle for a planned supercomputer was underway, but talks were held back by issues such as Musk's demands to build a supercomputer faster than Oracle deemed possible, the Information said.
Mittlerweile haben andere Kunden Oracle's Kapazitäten zugesagt bekommen.
The specific capacity that Oracle was talking about with xAI has been contracted to another customer, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters.
Jetzt muss xAI sich die Server selbst zusammen schrauben an einem Ort mit laut Oracle unzureichender Stromversorgung.
Derweil blüht die Zusammenarbeit von Oracle und Palantir
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/oracle-and-palantir-unlock-new-innovation-in-cloud-and-ai-to-power-businesses-and-governments-around-the-world-302191532.html
"Oracle's powerful and flexible cloud infrastructure, combined with Palantir's decision acceleration platforms, helps customers rapidly scale AI capabilities across its operations," said Rand Waldron, vice president, Oracle. "This will enable customers to get the most value out of their data, while meeting their sovereignty and security standards."
Palantir's Foundry and AIP are certified on OCI, jointly supported, and available across OCI's distributed cloud offerings, including
public cloud regions; OCI Dedicated Regions; Oracle Alloy; Oracle EU Sovereign Cloud; Oracle Government Cloud; Oracle Roving Edge, and Oracle's air-gapped regions for defense and intelligence customers. Palantir Foundry and AIP deployed on OCI can give customers the advantage of OCI's flexible compute infrastructure that provides efficiency, performance, and security.
Oracle is the only hyperscaler capable of delivering AI and a full suite of 100+ cloud services across dedicated, public, and hybrid cloud environments, anywhere in the world. With OCI's sovereign cloud offerings, customers can meet regulatory, security, and performance requirements while getting the full benefits of the cloud and AI.

News

Oracle mit mehr Umsatz und 18% Gewinnzuwachs
Oracle mit mehr Umsatz und 18% Gewinnzuwachs
Im abgelaufenen Quartal hat Oracle 3% mehr Umsatz gemacht und damit einen 18% höheren Nettogewinn erwirtschaftet. Mit 17% nahm der Umsatz mit neuen Lizenzen und Cloud Subscriptions besonders
Oracle übertrifft die Erwartungen
Oracle übertrifft die Erwartungen
Oracle veröffentlichte am späten Abend die Resultate zum dritten Quartal des laufenden Fiskaljahres. Der Umsatz des Konzerns wuchs um 3% auf 9,039 Mrd. USD gegenüber dem Vorjahreszeitraum.