Hardman & Co Research: Arbuthnot Banking Group (ARBB): Back to profitable growth with interest-rate kicker

Hardman & Co Research on Arbuthnot Banking Group (ARBB):

Back to profitable growth with interest-rate kicker

The key message from the 2021 results is that ABG is back to profitable growth with an interest-rate-upside kicker. End-2021 assets were at the levels management had forecast for that date, prior to the pandemic. In contrast, today's share price is 965p, against 1,350p in January 2020. The accounts were complicated by a number of exceptional items, but, adjusting for them on our basis, underlying profit was £3.4m. Giving credit for more normal interest rates and a one-off fraud, they were £17m. Looking forward, franchise growth is key: loans up 25% (underlying 29%), deposits 20%, and AUM 18%. The allocation of capital to high-margin, specialist SME finance continues.

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